A recent Newspoll has revealed a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the Coalition taking the lead in the polls.
The exclusive survey, conducted for The Australian, shows the Coalition leading 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis, with Liberal leader Peter Dutton closing the gap as preferred Prime Minister.
Albanese’s Approval Ratings Take a Hit
The poll also reveals a significant drop in approval ratings for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, with his personal numbers now worse than Scott Morrison’s at the same point in the cycle before the 2022 election.
Albanese’s approval ratings have fallen to a low of 37%, with dissatisfaction rising to 57%. This marks a six-point fall since the last poll, giving Albanese a net negative approval rating of minus 20.
Voters Expect a Coalition Victory
The survey shows that a majority of voters now believe a Coalition victory is more likely, either with the Coalition winning the election outright or in a minority government.
This marks a reversal of electoral expectations just six months ago, when Labor was considered the most likely to win. A whopping 53% of voters expect the Coalition to win, compared to 47% for Labor.
What’s Behind the Shift?
The two-point fall in Labor’s primary vote since December last year has transferred to a single-point gain for the Greens and other minor parties and independents.
Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party remains unchanged at 7%. The Coalition’s lead of 51-49% on a two-party-preferred basis points to a likely minority Labor government if the results were repeated at the election.
Minority Government on the Cards
The poll of voter expectations shows that 29% of voters believe the Coalition would win the election but only in minority government with support of independents.
This is lower than the 33% of voters who believe that it would be a Labor-led minority government.
Some 24% of voters believe the Coalition will win government in its own right, compared to 15% of voters who believe Labor will retain majority government.
Demographic Divide
There’s a significant gender difference in the expected outcome, with 58% of women voters believing a Coalition victory is more likely, compared to 49% of men.
Men are more inclined to predict a Labor win, at 51% compared to 42% of women voters. Younger voters also say a Coalition victory is now more likely, at 53-47%, which is mirrored by the oldest demographic of over 65s.
What Does This Mean for the Election?
The Newspoll results show that the vote for independents and minor parties other than the Greens and PHON remains 3.5 points down on the last election result.
The Greens and PHON remain at around the same level of support, while Labor is two points down on its election result. The Coalition is the only party to have gained ground since the last election, having lifted 3.3 points.
With the election just around the corner, it’s clear that the Coalition is gaining momentum, but the outcome is still far from certain. One thing’s for sure – it’s going to be a wild ride!