Australia’s Population Growth Slows to Record Low: 1.3% Increase Projected for 2026 as Birth Rates Plummet and Migrant Numbers Halve
- Australia’s population is forecast to reach 28 million people in 2026, despite a record-low growth rate of 1.3% due to a decline in migrant arrivals and a low birth rate.
- Melbourne is set to become the nation’s most populous city, reaching 9.1 million people by 2065-66, while Sydney will also pass the 8 million mark in the 2050s.
- The federal government is working to roll out programs to encourage Australians to have children, as the birth rate continues to decline, with couples choosing to delay having children and opt for smaller families.
Australia’s population growth is slowing down dramatically, with a record-low increase of 1.3% projected for 2026, according to the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement. This decline is driven by a decrease in migrant arrivals and an increase in migrant departures, with many people who arrived in post-COVID Australia on temporary visas approaching the expiry date of their visas.
The number of migrants entering Australia is expected to halve, from 520,000 in 2023 to 260,000 in 2026, sparking concerns about the impact on the economy and society. The federal opposition is set to make immigration a contentious issue this year, with the Coalition flagging a tougher language test for aspiring migrants to Australia.
Meanwhile, Australia’s birth rate continues to decline, with couples choosing to delay having children and opt for smaller families. The birth rate is expected to drop to 1.45 children per woman this year, before recovering slightly to 1.62 by 2031-32. However, this is still below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government is working to roll out programs to encourage Australians to have children. “The Albanese government is rolling out policies to ease pressure on families and make it easier for people to have children if they want to,” Mr Chalmers said.
As Australia’s population ages, dementia has overtaken ischaemic heart disease as the leading cause of death, according to the centre’s data. The nation’s median age is expected to rise 1.8 years to 40.2 years by 2035-36, with Western Australia projected to have the highest population growth rate due to net overseas migration and migration from other states and territories.