Pauline Hanson for PM? The Unlikely but Not Impossible Path to the Top Job
- One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s surge in popularity has raised the possibility of her becoming Australia’s prime minister
- While highly unlikely, experts say it’s not impossible, but would require a dramatic shift in the political landscape
- Hanson’s party would need to win dozens of lower house seats or form a stable coalition to have any chance of governing
Pauline Hanson, the long-time leader of One Nation, has long been a polarizing figure in Australian politics. But recent polling has pushed the unthinkable into the national conversation: could she become the nation’s next prime minister? While it may sound like a political fever dream, experts say it’s not entirely impossible, but would require a dramatic shift in the political landscape.
Support for Hanson and her One Nation party has surged in recent months, with the latest polls placing her ahead of Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as preferred prime minister and lifting One Nation above the Coalition on primary vote. Labor remains in front overall, but the figures have sparked questions over what is and is not possible under Australia’s political system.
To understand how a Hanson prime ministership could even be possible, you have to put aside how Australian politics usually works and look at the rules of the system itself. The Australian Constitution does not actually mention the prime minister at all, and the role is shaped by “convention and law” rather than strict constitutional rules. What the constitution does require is that ministers must be members of parliament within three months of being appointed.
Australian National University school of politics and international relations’ Dr Pandanus Petter explains that Hanson is technically eligible to serve as a government minister and, in theory, prime minister. “Pauline Hanson is a sitting member of the Senate, and therefore technically eligible to be a government minister,” he said. “Although the constitution does not mention the office of prime minister explicitly, all government ministers need to be members of either the House of Representatives or Senate within three months of being appointed.”
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
While the idea of Hanson as prime minister may come as a shock to many Australians, security analysts say it highlights the need for a deeper examination of the country’s political system. “The fragmentation on the right of Australian politics is a reflection of the disillusionment with the major parties,” said Dr Petter. “The fact that One Nation is surging in the polls is a warning sign that the system is not working as it should.”
Law enforcement insiders warn that a hung parliament, where no party wins a majority, could lead to instability and unpredictability. “In a hung parliament situation, the key question is no longer tradition or seniority, but numbers,” said Australian Institute democracy and accountability program director Bill Browne. “If any parliamentarian, including Pauline Hanson, could convince 76 members of the House to support their bid for prime minister, then they could become the next PM.”
Industry observers believe that Hanson’s party would need to win enough lower house seats to form government outright, or be central to putting together a stable majority in a hung parliament. “The chances of Labor doing a deal with One Nation are basically nil,” said Dr Petter. “The alternative would be backing from the Liberals and Nationals, but that path is also highly unlikely.”
Ultimately, the rules leave the door open, but history, party politics, and parliamentary reality keep it as close to closed as possible. While the scenario is unlikely, it highlights the need for a deeper examination of the country’s political system and the need for reform. As Dr Petter noted, “Voter frustration with the major parties is long-running, but that does not mean the system itself is breaking down.”
One thing is certain: the possibility of Pauline Hanson as prime minister has sparked a national conversation about the state of Australian politics and the need for change. As the country heads towards the next election, one thing is clear: the unthinkable is now a possibility, and Australians will be watching closely to see what unfolds.