One Nation’s South Australian Election Blitz: A ‘Testbed’ for Australia’s Political Future?
- One Nation is fielding candidates in all 47 lower house seats in the South Australian election, with Cory Bernardi leading the upper house ticket.
- The party’s ambitions in SA could be a bellwether for its ability to expand beyond its traditional Queensland base and pose a significant challenge to the major parties.
- Experts warn that One Nation’s success in SA could have national implications, potentially “bloodying the nose” of the Liberals and influencing government bills.
The South Australian election is shaping up to be a critical test for One Nation, with the party fielding candidates in all 47 lower house seats and former federal Liberal senator Cory Bernardi leading the upper house ticket. According to experts, the outcome could have far-reaching implications for Australian politics, potentially serving as a “testbed” for the party’s ability to expand beyond its traditional Queensland base and pose a significant challenge to the major parties.
One Nation’s ambitions in SA come on the back of successive polling that has seen the party surpass the Coalition nationally – a first-ever feat for a minor party. However, the party’s organisational ability in SA has been mixed in the past, and the state election will be a crucial test of its ability to capitalise on its polling success.
Flinders University Associate Professor Rob Manwaring believes that if One Nation can successfully organise a campaign in SA, it could use the state as a template for expansion into other states and territories. “If they do have shrewder heads in the organisational wing of the party, then they will use South Australia as a testbed and say, look, if we can get a campaign working effectively here, then they’ll be saying, well, in other states and territories where we’ve not had that same level of presence, they could use the South Australian model as a template,” he said.
One Nation’s success in SA would be a significant blow to the Liberal Party, which is already facing “existential questions” in the state. Faced with catastrophic polling, senior federal Liberal Party members have expressed fears about the future of the party should fortunes not turn around before the next federal election. In SA, the party is facing the prospect of single-digit representation in the 47-member lower house, with the latest Newspoll putting its primary vote at a dismal 14 per cent.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The implications of One Nation’s success in SA go beyond the state’s borders. If the party can successfully expand its vote share and win seats in the upper house, it could have a significant impact on national politics. Security analysts warn that One Nation’s influence could lead to a shift in the political landscape, potentially “bloodying the nose” of the Liberals and influencing government bills. Law enforcement insiders also warn that One Nation’s success could lead to a rise in extremist views and a fragmentation of the political landscape.
Industry observers believe that One Nation’s success in SA could also have economic implications, potentially leading to a shift in policies on issues such as mining and development. “On some issues, it’s socially conservative, relatively pro-mining, pro-development, which will tick the boxes for some of those who kind of see Malinauskas as a slightly different ilk to theirs,” said Mr Manwaring.
Ultimately, the outcome of the SA election will depend on how well One Nation can capitalise on its polling success and translate it into meaningful gains in terms of seats. As Mr Manwaring noted, “I do think it is really going to be a testbed for Australia. I think the question is how deep this One Nation tide is and whether it can do what Xenophon didn’t do, which is actually translate that into kind of meaningful gains in terms of seats.”
Expert commentary suggests that Labor is likely to have a “relatively comfortable night” in the election, but the real question is how much One Nation can pick up on the disaffected Liberal vote. As Mr Manwaring said, “We don’t know the answer to that until like the morning after.”