Battle for Nepean: Liberal Leader Unfazed by One Nation Threat in By-Election
- Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh launches campaign despite previously pledging not to run for parliament
- One Nation emerges as main challenger, with Labor choosing not to run a candidate
- By-election sparked by retirement of former Deputy Liberal Leader Sam Groth, who quit politics citing disillusionment
The Liberal Party has launched its by-election campaign in Nepean, with candidate Anthony Marsh vying for the seat left vacant by former Deputy Liberal Leader Sam Groth’s sudden retirement. But as the Liberals face a strong challenge from One Nation, party leader Jess Wilson remains confident in her candidate’s chances.
The by-election, triggered by Groth’s decision to quit politics in early February, has set the stage for a fierce battle between the Liberals and One Nation. Labor has opted not to run a candidate, leaving the field open for a two-way contest. Marsh, the current Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor, was chosen by the Liberals as their candidate despite having previously pledged not to run for parliament.
Marsh’s decision to run has raised eyebrows, given his earlier commitment to remain in local government. However, he has defended his decision, citing the need to address “big structural issues” in the region that can only be tackled at the state level. “As a mayor and a councillor, you realise that a lot of the big structural issues here on the peninsula and the seat of Nepean are state problems, and you have to be a member of a team to make a difference,” he said.
One Nation, meanwhile, is shaping up as the main challenger to the Liberals, with its candidate set to be announced on Sunday. While Labor has chosen not to contest the seat, the party’s absence has given One Nation a clear run at taking the seat. Redbridge Group pollster Kos Samaras predicts a strong showing from One Nation, but believes the party’s chances of winning are slim.
“I would expect One Nation’s vote to be sizeable; however, if you could find a part of Melbourne that doesn’t really favour One Nation in terms of demography, it would be that part,” he said. “Although it’s much older in terms of median age, it’s wealthier and more likely to reject that One Nation narrative.”
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The Nepean by-election has significant implications for the Liberal Party and the state of Victorian politics. The retirement of Sam Groth, a former professional tennis player and Deputy Liberal Leader, has sparked a chain reaction of events that will be closely watched ahead of the upcoming state and federal elections. The performance of One Nation in this by-election will be seen as a bellwether for its chances in the larger elections to come.
For the Liberal Party, the stakes are high. A loss in Nepean would be a significant blow to the party’s morale and could have flow-on effects for the state and federal elections. The party’s decision to choose Marsh as its candidate, despite his previous pledge not to run for parliament, has raised questions about the party’s vetting process and its ability to attract strong candidates.
Security analysts say the by-election result will also have implications for law enforcement and border control in Victoria. A strong showing from One Nation could embolden the party to push for tougher policies on immigration and national security, potentially leading to a shift in the political landscape.
Industry observers believe the by-election will also have economic consequences for the region. The Mornington Peninsula is a key tourist destination, and any perceived instability in the region could have a negative impact on local businesses and the economy as a whole.