NATO member states have pledged to increase their defense spending to five percent of national output by 2035, citing concerns over Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine and the potential for a direct attack on NATO territory.
The commitment marks a significant shift in NATO’s strategy, acknowledging that diplomatic efforts alone will not be enough to end the war in Ukraine.
Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could test the alliance directly within the next five years.
Russia’s next move is likely to target a non-NATO post-Soviet state, such as Moldova, rather than a direct strike on NATO territory.
However, NATO’s actions between now and the end of the decade will influence Putin’s calculus, and a successful strategy must begin with a clear understanding of Russia’s modern war doctrine.
This doctrine, formulated by the Russian General Staff, seeks to bypass an enemy’s strengths and exploit its vulnerabilities.
In a future confrontation with NATO, Moscow will likely try to seize the initiative by targeting the alliance’s reliance on space assets, command-and-control nodes, and precision networks.
To deter such a campaign, NATO must shore up its weaknesses, including protecting its space infrastructure from Russian counter-space weapons and hardening critical civilian infrastructure against cyber sabotage.
The alliance must also prioritize counter-intelligence and close the production and manpower gap with Russia’s war economy.
NATO still has time to prepare, but the window is rapidly closing.
The heavy sacrifices made by Ukraine serve as a warning that tomorrow’s security cannot be bought solely with bigger budgets or smarter technology.
Only a coherent, forward-looking strategy – rooted in an unblinking assessment of Russia’s playbook – can convince the Kremlin that a fresh offensive anywhere in Europe would be a gamble it cannot win.
Authorities are urging citizens to remain vigilant and to report any suspicious activity to the relevant authorities.