The man call Nostradamus of US elections has reveald who will be elected as winner in the presidential elections in November.
Although many polls show that the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is close, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has been predicting the outcome of the elections in every election since 1984.
Although he made an exception in 2000, when he correctly predicted Al Gore’s victory over George W. Bush, Lichtman noted that his model was based on the popular vote.
In 2016, he was rewarded with a note from the election’s winner after correctly predicting that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton.
After testing his model with the presidential candidates in 2024, Lichtman concluded that the Democrats would win the election and that Trump would not be sending him any congratulatory messages.
He told the New York Times that Harris would become the next US president.
His prediction is based on a 13-key model that he developed with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a geophysicist from Russia. The model takes into account various factors such as the party in power and the performance of the presidential candidates.
For each key, Lichtman chooses between a true or a false answer. For instance, the former is beneficial for Harris, while the latter boosts Trump’s chances of winning. In a video posted on The New York Times’ website, he explained his choices.
The first key is “Midterm Gains,” which he says is for Trump due to how the Democrats did poorly in 2022 even though they gained House seats. The second key is “Incumbency,” which he claims is for the Republicans due to how Biden dropped out of the race.
It is untrue. If Biden had kept running, the Democrats would have won this key. Trump started out well, but the third key, the primary contest, led to the party’s overwhelming support for Harris, making it true, according to Lichtman. The other key, the “Third Party,” goes to Harris.
According to Lichtman, the third-party candidates are not close to the level of support needed to win this key. He claims that RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race means that the economy is not going into recession. The Long-term Economy is also “true,” as it is expected to continue growing during Biden’s term, while the previous two terms were slower.
One of Harris’ key issues is “Policy Change.” He believes that signing on to the Paris agreement on climate change and other legislation during Biden’s term would be a no-brainer. However, he is still undecided on the other issue, which is “Social Unrest.”
Despite the various protests that have occurred, Lichtman believes that the country is not approaching the level of social unrest that needed to turn this key. The next key is “White House Scandal.” He claims that the Republicans have been trying to pin a scandal on Biden for years, but they have failed.
Although he believes that the race is close, he is not convinced that either candidate can captivate the voters. He claims that Harris is not at the level of charisma that would allow him to win this key. He also states that Trump does not have the necessary qualities to win this key.
Lichtman claims that Trump only appeals to a small group of voters, which is why he believes that Harris will win the election. He acknowledges that the other two key issues, namely, “Foreign Policy Success” and “Failed Foreign Policy,” could flip, but he believes that it would not be sufficient for Trump to win.
Despite the various factors that can affect the outcome of the election, Lichtman believes that the key factors will still work. He is still confident that he will be able to predict the winner of the 2024 presidential race. Despite the skepticism of many observers, he is still able to deliver an accurate prediction. The Harris campaign will be happy with his continued accuracy.