One Nation’s Shocking Surge: The Party of Disaffected Voters Set to Rock Australian Politics
- One Nation on track to secure 22-28% of the vote in South Australian state election, outpacing Liberal Party
- Party’s discipline and targeted messaging credited for surprise performance, despite candidate scandal
- Experts warn of potential watershed moment in Australian politics, with major parties facing threat of One Nation’s rise
The South Australian state election has become a battleground for the nation, as One Nation’s surging popularity has left the major parties reeling.
Despite the Labor Party’s expected win, opinion polls show One Nation is set to secure a staggering 22-28% of the vote, outpacing the Liberal Party’s 14-20%.
According to Flinders University public policy associate lecturer Josh Sunman, One Nation’s discipline has been the surprise story of the campaign. “The fact that we got to the final week and there was only one negative candidate story about One Nation…
was really instructive to me,” he said.
However, that one negative story was significant – a UK court issued an arrest warrant for One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter over a charge of sexually touching a woman without consent, leading to his swift disendorsement.
One Nation’s SA leader Cory Bernardi is hoping to secure a seat in the upper house, and the party’s targeted messaging and candidate discipline have been credited for its strong performance.
In contrast, the Liberal Party has run a dismal campaign, struggling to balance taking on Labor while also addressing the One Nation threat.
As the final opinion poll released on Friday showed, YouGov forecast a 59-41 win for Labor on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation, a 4.4% swing in its favour.
Paul Smith from YouGov said Labor was set to secure its largest two-party preferred vote in SA history, while the Liberals were on track for their worst result in any state or federal election since the coalition was formed.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The rise of One Nation has significant implications for Australian politics, with experts warning of a potential watershed moment. Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre said the party’s surge could mark the end of two-party politics at a federal level.
“If they do make a breakthrough, they’re going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative government,” he said.
Security analysts say the One Nation factor has the major parties worried, and its surge in popularity could lead to a shift in the national political landscape.
“One Nation’s rise is a clear indication of frustration with the major parties,” said Sunman. “It’s a warning sign for Labor and the Liberals that they need to take the concerns of disaffected voters seriously.”
As One Nation’s federal leader Pauline Hanson said, the party’s surge is a barometer of its popularity, and the election will be a test of its viability as a serious alternative government.
With the party’s strong support in regional areas, it’s clear that One Nation is here to stay – and its impact on Australian politics will be felt for years to come.
