House Prices Set to Plummet as One Nation Vows to Slash Migration: Experts Warn of ‘Material Impact’ on Market
- One Nation’s plan to cut permanent and student visas to 130,000 per year could lead to a 10-15% drop in house values, says property expert Louis Christopher
- Australia’s housing crisis is being fueled by record migration numbers, with 11 million households competing for 10 million homes
- Expert warns of short-term risks of recession, but medium to long-term benefits of reduced migration on housing market
- One Nation’s policy could see Australia follow in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada, where house prices have fallen by up to 30% in real terms
The great Australian dream of owning a home is becoming increasingly out of reach for many, with record migration numbers and a severe housing shortage driving up prices and rents.
But One Nation’s plan to slash migration could be the game-changer the market needs, with experts warning of a “material impact” on house prices.
According to Louis Christopher, managing director of property analysts SQM Research, reducing permanent and student visas to 130,000 per year would only require 100,000 homes to be built each year, instead of the current 170,000.
This would reduce demand and lead to a fall in housing prices and rents. “I think you would see material falling housing prices on this change,” he said.
“And I know many people would welcome that.”
One Nation’s plan is not without its risks, however. Mr.
Christopher warned of short-term risks of a recession, but said the medium to long-term benefits of reduced migration on the housing market would be significant.
“If I had to put a number on it, I’d say a 10 to 15 per cent drop in house values,” he said.
The party’s proposal has been met with criticism from some, who argue that it would have a negative impact on the economy.
However, One Nation’s spokesperson said the party understood that reducing migration levels could put downward pressure on house prices, but a balance needed to be found in what was a supply and demand issue.
“The primary aim of our reducing migration is to reduce demand for housing,” they said.
“You take some of the heat out of this housing crisis and you have less people who are not Australians competing with people who are Australians for accommodation in Australia.”
Australia’s housing crisis is being fueled by record migration numbers, with 11 million households competing for 10 million homes.
Net overseas migration numbers for the 2024-2025 financial year sat at 306,000, down from 429,000 a year earlier when there was a peak of 661,000 arrivals.
Budget papers forecast net migration to fall from 295,000 to 225,000 between 2026 and 2029, but One Nation’s plan would see a much more significant reduction.
The impact of reduced migration on the housing market can be seen in countries such as New Zealand and Canada, where house prices have fallen by up to 30% in real terms.
In New Zealand, property values are down 29% from peaks in 2022, while in Canada, a drop in population in 2025 and 2026 after tightening migration settings led to a fall in house prices and rents.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The potential impact of One Nation’s migration policy on the housing market is significant, and could have far-reaching consequences for the Australian economy.
With house prices and rents already under pressure from interest rates and proposed reforms to capital gains tax and negative gearing concessions, a reduction in migration could be the final nail in the coffin for the current housing market.
However, it could also bring much-needed relief to those struggling to get a foot in the door.
Security analysts say that a reduction in migration could also have implications for national security, with fewer people entering the country reducing the risk of potential security threats.
However, law enforcement insiders warn that the policy could also lead to a shortage of skilled workers, particularly in the construction industry.
Industry observers believe that One Nation’s policy could be a game-changer for the housing market, but also warn that it could have unintended consequences. “It’s a complex issue, and there’s no easy solution,” said one industry insider.
“But something needs to be done to address the housing crisis, and reducing migration could be part of the solution.”
Only time will tell if One Nation’s policy will have the desired effect on the housing market, but one thing is certain – the great Australian dream of owning a home is under threat, and something needs to be done to address it.
housing crisisAustralian Bureau of Statistics
