NSW Premier Chris Minns’ Desperate Bid to Stem One Nation’s Rise as State Election Looms
- New South Wales Premier Chris Minns is facing a growing threat from One Nation as the state election approaches, with the party’s leader Pauline Hanson set to make a significant impact in Western Sydney.
- Minns’ own seat of Kogarah is not under threat, but the premier is worried about the potential for One Nation to poach Labor votes and hand the Coalition a lifeline.
- The NSW government’s handling of housing and infrastructure is set to be a major issue in the election campaign, with One Nation demanding a drastic cut to immigration to ease pressure on the state’s resources.
- Minns is walking a tightrope, trying to appease voters with promises of cost-of-living relief while avoiding accusations of stoking inflation and interest rates.
With the NSW state election just over nine months away, Premier Chris Minns is facing a growing threat from One Nation, led by the formidable Pauline Hanson.
The premier’s own seat of Kogarah is not under threat, but he’s worried about the potential for One Nation to poach Labor votes and hand the Coalition a lifeline.
In a recent interview with Stateline, Minns acknowledged the danger posed by One Nation, saying, “I think this is a genuine threat to us in the Labor Party.” He’s right to be concerned – One Nation’s rising popularity has the potential to splinter right-leaning voters and rob the Coalition of preferences it would otherwise expect.
The NSW system of optional preferential voting only adds to the risk, making it more likely that voters will split their support between multiple parties.
One Nation’s platform is centered on a demand to dramatically cut immigration, capping visas at 130,000 per year to ease pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Minns is walking a tightrope on this issue, saying that while he doesn’t want to see a “formal link” between immigration and housing supply, it should be “part of the consideration.” However, he’s also keen to emphasize the state government’s responsibility to build more homes, saying, “I don’t want the immigration debate to obscure the state government’s responsibility to get on with the job of building houses.” The numbers tell a worrying story – NSW needs to build 75,000 homes a year to meet its original targets under the national housing accord, but last year it managed just 45,000.
With the election looming, Minns will need to show a continued upward trajectory in housing completions to convince voters that his planning reforms are bearing fruit.
The government is pointing to “green shoots” in the data, boasting 13,358 housing completions in the December quarter, representing a six-year-high.
However, this is still a long way short of the target, and the premier will need to do more to convince voters that he’s taking the issue seriously.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The rise of One Nation in NSW has significant implications for Australian politics, particularly in the context of the upcoming federal election. If One Nation can make significant gains in Western Sydney, it could have a flow-on effect in other states and territories.
The party’s focus on immigration and housing is likely to resonate with voters who feel that the major parties are out of touch with their concerns.
For Minns and the NSW Labor government, the challenge is to find a way to address these concerns without being seen to pander to One Nation’s populist agenda.
Security analysts say that the rise of One Nation is a symptom of a broader dissatisfaction with the major parties, particularly among voters in outer suburban and regional areas.
“Voters are feeling ignored and disenfranchised by the major parties, and One Nation is capitalizing on that sense of discontent,” one analyst said.
“The major parties need to take a long, hard look at their policies and make sure they’re addressing the concerns of all voters, not just those in the inner city.” Industry observers believe that the NSW government’s handling of housing and infrastructure will be a major issue in the election campaign, and that Minns will need to do more to convince voters that he’s taking the issue seriously.
As the election approaches, Minns will need to balance the need to appease voters with the need to avoid accusations of stoking inflation and interest rates.
The premier’s ability to provide sweeteners in the upcoming budget is “limited by the tight economics,” and he’ll need to be careful not to make promises he can’t keep.
With One Nation breathing down his neck, Minns will need to be bold and decisive if he’s to stem the party’s rise and secure a third term for Labor.
state election One Nation NSW government Australian Bureau of Statistics
