Queensland Labor Staves Off Leadership Crisis as Steven Miles Secures By-Election Win in Stafford, But At What Cost?
- Steven Miles’s leadership appears safe for now, but Labor’s 4.1 per cent swing away from the party to the LNP has sent alarm bells ringing.
- The by-election result has exposed deep divisions within the Labor caucus, with some MPs calling for a change in strategy and others backing Miles to stay on as leader.
- A 4.1 per cent swing against Labor at the next election could see the party lose several seats to the LNP, including those held by shadow transport minister Bart Mellish and high-profile frontbencher Meaghan Scanlon.
- The LNP’s strong performance in the by-election has buoyed the party’s hopes of growing its majority and expanding its appeal in Brisbane.
The Queensland Labor Party can breathe a collective sigh of relief after Steven Miles led the party to a win in the Stafford by-election. However, the result has also exposed deep divisions within the Labor caucus and raised questions about the party’s future direction.
A 4.1 per cent swing away from Labor to the LNP has sent alarm bells ringing, with some MPs calling for a change in strategy and others backing Miles to stay on as leader.
The by-election was widely seen as a test for Miles’s leadership, and while he can claim a win, the result is far from convincing.
Labor’s primary vote plummeted from 39 per cent in 2024 to just 31 per cent, and the party’s margin in the seat has been reduced to a wafer-thin 1.2 per cent.
The LNP, on the other hand, lifted its share of the vote by two points to 40 per cent, a result that will buoy the party’s hopes of growing its majority and expanding its appeal in Brisbane.
One of the key factors contributing to Labor’s poor performance was the splintering of the vote among a number of left-of-centre candidates. The Greens, the Animal Justice Party, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland all fielded candidates in the by-election, which drew votes away from Labor.
Miles attributed the fall in Labor’s support to this factor, but others within the party are pointing to deeper issues.
At the heart of Labor’s problems is a factional log jam within the caucus.
None of the potential leadership replacements, including Cameron Dick from the right and Shannon Fentiman from the left, have the outright numbers to take the top job.
Dick, Fentiman, and Grace Grace, who leads the old guard faction, all publicly declared their support for Miles yesterday, but it’s clear that not everyone within the party is convinced that he is the right leader to take them forward.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
The by-election result in Stafford has significant implications for Queensland politics and beyond.
A 4.1 per cent swing against Labor at the next election could see the party lose several seats to the LNP, including those held by shadow transport minister Bart Mellish and high-profile frontbencher Meaghan Scanlon.
This would not only damage Labor’s chances of winning the next election but also undermine the party’s ability to provide effective opposition to the LNP government.
Security analysts say that the result highlights the need for Labor to get its act together and present a united front to the electorate. “The party needs to resolve its internal conflicts and present a clear and compelling vision for Queensland’s future,” said one analyst.
“If it can’t do that, it risks being left behind by the LNP and other parties that are more in tune with the concerns of voters.”
Law enforcement insiders also warn that the result could have implications for the state’s law and order agenda.
“The LNP’s strong performance in the by-election suggests that voters are looking for a tough and effective approach to crime and justice,” said one insider.
“If Labor can’t match the LNP’s commitment to law and order, it risks being seen as soft on crime and out of touch with community concerns.”
Industry observers believe that the result could also have economic implications for Queensland.
“The LNP’s victory in the by-election suggests that voters are backing the party’s economic agenda, which is focused on creating jobs and growing the state’s economy,” said one observer.
“If Labor can’t match the LNP’s economic credentials, it risks being left behind and losing the support of business and industry groups.”
