Liberal Exodus Deepens as Third Frontbencher Quits Ahead of March Poll, Leaving Kellie Sloane’s ‘Watch This Space’ Victory Claim Looking Shaky as One Nation Surges Across NSW
- Shadow roads minister Mark Coure has become the third member of the Liberal frontbench in under three months to walk away from politics, shocking both sides of Macquarie Street.
- Six Liberal MPs, five of them former ministers, will not recontest their seats, draining the Opposition of decades of experience just months before voters head to the polls.
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is screening around 900 hopefuls for its NSW ticket, and Premier Chris Minns has openly predicted its state leader will finish as either premier or opposition leader.
- A quirk of the NSW voting system could let Labor snatch Liberal heartland seats, even in electorates where One Nation has no hope of winning.
One day, the leader of the NSW Liberals was telling Sydney radio listeners to brace for a change of government. The next, another of her most seasoned lieutenants was heading for the exit.
For Kellie Sloane, the timing could hardly have been worse.
Appearing on 2GB with Ben Fordham on Monday, the Opposition Leader projected supreme confidence, declaring she was growing more certain by the day that the Coalition would be governing the state next year.
Fordham pressed her on whether she would be the one in charge. She did not flinch.
Less than 24 hours later, that bravado collided with an awkward reality.
Mark Coure, the Member for Oatley and the Opposition’s spokesman for roads and south-west Sydney, confirmed on Tuesday that he will not stand at the NSW state election scheduled for 13 March.
He is not alone. Fellow shadow cabinet members Alister Henskens and James Griffin announced in September that they too were leaving parliament.
Backbenchers Mark Taylor, Ray Williams and Tanya Davies have also signalled they are done. That brings the tally of departing Liberals to six, and every one of them except Taylor has previously held a ministerial portfolio.
Coure’s decision blindsided colleagues and opponents alike.
Only days earlier, he had been one of the loudest voices fighting proposed changes to Sydney train timetables, a campaign that ended with the Minns Government backing down.
The 48-year-old insists electoral danger played no part. He says he wants more time with his two young sons.
Yet he also let slip that leaving politics without ever having lost a contest was something of a personal badge of honour, a remark that will fuel speculation he saw storm clouds gathering.
And the numbers are stark. Coure clings to Oatley by just 0.8 per cent over Labor.
Speaking to ABC Radio Sydney, he argued the seat had always been tight and that he had defied the odds at every election. But defying the odds is a far harder task when a populist insurgency is siphoning votes from your own side.
That insurgency is the defining feature of this campaign. The Coalition is trailing Labor in the polls, while One Nation has surged into contention under its NSW leader, Mike Newman.
Last week, Premier Chris Minns all but dismissed the Liberals entirely, telling 2GB that on every available poll Newman would end up either running the state or leading the Opposition after polling day.
It is an extraordinary claim about a party that has so far unveiled just one lower house candidate: Newman himself. But the machinery is moving fast.
Newman told the ABC his team is recruiting across all 92 remaining electorates, with roughly 900 applications to work through.
The real danger for the Liberals lies in the fine print of the ballot paper. Unlike federal contests and other mainland states, NSW uses optional preferential voting, meaning electors can simply number a single box and stop.
Respected election analyst Antony Green has highlighted that when disaffected Liberal voters drift to One Nation and exhaust their preferences, Labor can win seats such as Oatley simply by topping the primary count.
Labor is not immune to the turbulence. Prospect MP Hugh McDermott, Wyong MP David Harris and Wallsend MP Sonia Hornery are all retiring.
On paper, Wallsend is rock-solid, held by a towering 31.8 per cent margin. Yet party strategists are reportedly nervous the Hunter seat could be swept up in an orange wave.
Analysis: What This Means for Australia
What is unfolding in NSW is far bigger than a run of retirements.
The nation’s most populous state is staring at the genuine prospect of a three-way split in its parliament, and the consequences for ordinary communities could be profound.
A fractured result would likely force two of the three major forces into a deal. Given One Nation’s fierce hostility towards Labor, the most plausible partnership is between the Coalition and Hanson’s party.
Sloane hinted as much on Monday, saying she was comfortable relying on crossbench support if that was what it took, and insisting voters everywhere were angry with the Government.
For families in Sydney’s sprawling south-west and the regional Hunter, that uncertainty matters. Major questions over cost of living, housing affordability, transport and policing all hinge on stable government.
A minority arrangement built on shaky alliances could stall big-ticket infrastructure, unsettle investors and leave key services in limbo.
There is also a social dimension. The flight of experienced MPs strips local electorates of representatives who know the bureaucracy, the budget process and the levers of power.
Newcomers, however energetic, take years to build that expertise. Communities like Oatley, Kellyville and the Hills could find themselves represented by first-timers at precisely the moment the state needs steady hands.
Nationally, a strong One Nation showing in NSW would send shockwaves through federal politics, emboldening populist campaigns in other states and putting pressure on both major parties to harden their messaging on immigration and living costs.
Political analysts say the steady stream of Liberal departures sends a damaging signal to voters, suggesting that even insiders doubt the party’s chances. When former ministers choose retirement over another tilt at government, observers note, the public tends to notice.
Electoral strategists warn that the optional preferential system is the wildcard few are discussing loudly enough.
They believe the Liberals could be squeezed from both directions, losing ground to One Nation in conservative heartlands while handing marginal seats to Labor through exhausted ballots.
Campaign insiders also caution that One Nation’s rapid candidate vetting carries risk.
Processing hundreds of applicants in a matter of months, they say, raises the possibility of embarrassing disclosures emerging mid-campaign, a problem that has dogged minor parties in previous contests.
Others argue Labor should not grow complacent.
Seasoned observers point out that a 31.8 per cent margin once seemed untouchable, but that protest movements have a habit of overturning assumptions in safe working-class electorates.
Information on enrolment and voting rules is available through the NSW Electoral Commission.
For now, Sloane continues to insist the path to government remains open.
But with experienced colleagues heading for the door one after another, many are wondering whether her confidence is shared by the very people sitting beside her.